- General Characteristics
The FALL3D scenario model provides quantitative forecasting of volcanic ash and SO2 clouds using state-of-the-art simulation codes, data assimilation of real-time satellite retrievals and high performance computing applications. A workflow controlling the different components of the forecasting system can exploit high-performance computing (HPC) resources to reduce the latency in the generation of new forecasts and meet the operational time response constraints.
- Specific Products Description
The workflow can generate quantitative forecasts of volcanic ash/SO2 clouds from numerical models by assimilating near real-time geostationary satellite data. The output products include quantitative volcanic ash (QVA) concentration information intended to be reported by volcanic ash advisory centres (VAAC) in a near future as part of the International Civil Aviation Organization’s (ICAO) International Airways Volcano Watch (IAVW), including:
- Vertical column mass
- Concentration at multiple flight levels
- Layer-averaged concentrations
- Surface concentration
- Top height of volcanic clouds
- Tephra deposit mass loading
Each product can be generated for both volcanic ash and SO2 or for different sizes of volcanic tephra (e.g. PM10, PM20). Figure 1 shows an example of SO2 column mass modelled for an eruption in Iceland.
Figure 1: Example of a FALL3D output for a volcanic eruption in Iceland. The SO2 mass loading represents the amount of SO2 present in a vertical atmospheric column.
- Products Availability (spatial resolution, spatial coverage, temporal resolution, delay, error etc.)
The products provide information about airspace areas prone to be contaminated by hazardous concentrations at cruise Flight Level for both volcanic ash and SO2 with the resolutions:
- Spatial resolution: 1-10 km
- Temporal resolution: ~1h